LSANKAR

This is the second 'crypto' bear market I've lived through during which I'm working full-time on crypto-related things and the first 'tech' bear market I've lived through during which I'm working full-time on tech-related things.

This time around, it's been considerably easier to observe collective beliefs objectively. Just 6 months ago, many beliefs that I held about the future were echoed or met with nodding heads among acquaintances.

"blockchains will 'scale' and become emerge as robust internet infrastructure"

"cryptography will restructure society"

"pseudonymous crowds coordinating online can unseat many entrenched institutions"

Today these beliefs are quite controversial, but as far as I can tell, nothing that would inform such beliefs has changed in the world. The fundamental rules of the internet, society, and cryptography are the same.

Such a radical shift in such a short time among people I consider intelligent has me thinking a lot about epistemology. How can an intelligent person change her beliefs on such a wild idea so quickly when the 'physics' haven't changed?

I suspect that most people today form most beliefs socially. What others think defines what they think, recursively.

Understandably! As the world becomes more tightly connected, the number of things one feels one must have an opinion on grows (probably quadratically in 'number of minds'). There isn't nearly enough time to do first principles thinking on every topic under the sun.

I wouldn't say that socially formed beliefs are bad or good. Framed one way, they're 'wisdom of the crowds', framed differently they're 'groupthink'. They simply exist and seem to be growing in importance as attention becomes scarcer.

But they're important to resist for us technologists.

Technological progress depends on persistence and conviction through multiple cycles of belief trends. Real progress is made by those who have the conviction that comes only from a first-principle studied belief.

To my fellow technology entrepreneurs: form a clear belief about the future alone. Think deeply about the future and study reality and history to deepen that belief.

If the belief withstands your study, hold strong. The crowds don't know shit.